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Cop float: Sussex police officer Kelly Joel with the Gem Car tested, and dropped in 2008. |
TESLA CEO Elon Musk may one day be remembered best for his
prophetic summary that hydrogen electric cars are bulls**t.
Here at Wheels, we
agreed with Musk’s statement in 2013 and not just because the tiny hydrogen
molecule will eventually leak from any tank, as Toyota found out in Florida,
where H1 drivers are not driving because they cannot get fuel.
Our anti H1 stance is mainly based on the double labour required to
get hydrogen cars to go.
For those who don’t know, making hydrogen requires lot of
electricity from dirty, coal powered plants, and this hydrogen is then stored
until such time as it can be used to generate electricity again, (if the little
molecules have not all leaked out, that is). As BMW stated, instead of building
new hydrogen fuel stations, just use the existing electric infrastructure to
recharge batteries. This means every lamp pole out there is a potential charging
point.
Then there is the fact that electric cars have fewer moving parts
than hydrogen cars. Fewer moving parts means less servicing, which means lower
running costs. To put a number to this, the UK government and industry-backed Go
Ultra Low campaign points out UK motorists can save an average of £306 (over
R6 800) a year in workshop fees by switching to a new electric car.
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| As the wheel of life turns, expect the return of the Milk Float. |
Return of the milk float
The problem to date has been the cost of
batteries that can last the distance and the source of the energy. To solve the
first, all hydrogen haters, Wheels
included, pointed out building better batteries to store that first batch of
Amps should be the focus of all auto engineers.
The latest Bloomberg New Energy Finance report shows call has been
heeded.
By 2020, predicts Bloomberg, electric vehicles will become cheaper
than petrol or diesel cars in most countries and by 2040, sales of electric
vehicles will hit 41 million, with one in three of new light duty vehicle sales,
like the milk floats of yore.
Salim Morsy, senior analyst and author of the Bloomberg study, said
the forecast is based on the crude oil price recovering to $50, and then
trending back up to $70-a-barrel or higher by 2040. “Interestingly, if the oil
price were to fall to $20 and stick there, this would only delay mass adoption
of EVs to the early 2030s,” Morsy said in a statement. While oil pundits
currently predict low crude prices for at least the next four years, even
smaller vehicle sellers like Citroën and Honda expect oil will go back up again,
and are turning to electric vehicles that are not like milk floats at all.
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| but new evees will not look like milk floats, but like Citroën's DS ETense. |
Citroën last week managed to turned even die-hard V8 petrolheads
with an artist’s impression of the DS E-TENSE, which will be launched at the
2016 Geneva Motor Show.
This electric-powered supercar will be sold under the umbrella of
Citroën’s newly established luxury brand, DS Automobiles, and will reportedly
make 300 kW and 516 Nm — all quietly and with zero emissions.
Honda makes a U turn
But the big surprise was from Honda’s new CEO
Takahiro Hachigo, who told a specially convened press conference last week that
the Japanese automaker is changing its focus from making hydrogen cars to making
electrics.
By 2030, said the new gun Hachigo-san, Honda plans to sell a third
of its fleet as electric cars.
Not that commuting and delivering the milk in quiet electric
vehicles will save the world from climate-changing greenhouse gases.
For while the world still creates its electricity by burning coal,
even this author’s electric scooter has very big and dirty exhaust pipes at the
end of the power line indeed.
Two independent studies published in the journals Environmental Research Letters and Environmental Science & Technology
underline that charging electric cars overnight at home will lead to coal-fired
power plants emitting greenhouse gases around the clock, leading to more
pollution by night, with an increase of 50% in health costs.
Which is why, alongside better batteries, the next challenge is
better voltaic cells for the sun to trickle charge those batteries to create
vehicles that make more energy than they use.
Impossible?
Not so, as the students at the Delft University has now proven with
Stella Lux, a road-legal, solar-powered family saloon that does make more Watts
than it needs.
As a proof of concept, Stella cost well over R20 million to
develop, and the tree-huggers at Wheels
can but hope Moore’s Law will result in a more affordable version within
our lifetime.
(Written for Wheels, 3 March 2016)
