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| Mechanics will be needed for decades more to prop up the ageing fossil fuel vehicles. |
JULY saw the launch of two cars that can collect at least 50 km of range a day from the solar panels on their roofs.
Dutch group Lightyear last week launched their Lightyear One family car in the Netherlands while Toyota is testing new voltaic cells on a Prius.
Meanwhile research to power cargo ships with hydrogen fuel cells; trucks with liquefied natural gas (LNG), and hyper cars that recharge their batteries with mini turbines continues apace.
What does this mean for current and aspiring mechanics — should they become electricians instead?
A look at the numbers of SA’s fleet show that fossil fuel mechanics will have work for many years to come.
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| The Lightyear One. |
The world has over 1,4 billion vehicles that still burn oil, compared to only some two million vehicles that do not burn fossiled plant material.
In South Africa, where all the electric vehicles sold can park on a soccer field, there are over 12 million registered fossil fuel burning vehicles, according to the electronic National Administration Traffic Information System (eNatis).
In KwaZulu-Natal, eNatis lists 1 596 340 licensed and 69 656 unlicensed vehicles in 2019.
Arrive Alive, which hopes to get newer, safer cars on SA’s roads, lists the average age of all vehicles in South Africa at 10 years.
This average breaks down to 13 years for minibuses, 11 years for buses and 12 years for trucks.
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| The author in a (new) Siaya taxi, which typically drives for a lucky 13 years on South Africa's roads. |
The numbers thus show just in KZN there are over 1,6 million vehicles that need maintenance and fixing and they will be needing these services for another 13 years at least.
While the demand for petrol and diesel mechanics are therefore assured for the next decade, this does not mean the spanner swingers should not learn now how to fix “alternative” drive trains.
In a recent statement from the Retail Motor Industry Organisation (RMI), an umbrella organisation for mechanics, CEO Jakkie Olivier said there is a growing sense of urgency in the automotive industry that more needs to be done to curtail dependency on fossil fuels and to reduce harmful CO2 emissions. “Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) are channelling ever more resources into developing low-carbon vehicles, aimed at addressing the issues of CO2 emissions, and the soaring cost of petrol and diesel,” Olivier stated.
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| Like many trikes out there, the Elf is powered by a combo of battery and leg power. |
He admitted, however, that there is still no consensus as to whether future drivetrains will be powered by electric batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, bio-diesel, LNG or even a combination of leg power and small motors in the case of small electric one seaters like the Elf.
Gas looms big for SA
Among the many options, local mechanics will do well if they focus on LNG engines.
Natural gas produces considerably lower exhaust emissions than diesel or petrol and South Africa and Mozambique are developing more gas pipelines in order to meet the increasing demand for LNG in both countries.
The lower prices for LNG compared to diesel should convince most fleet owners to convert their engines to combust gas instead of oil.
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| While batteries remain limited in range, bio-diesel and natural liquified gas will be the energy sources of choice for trucks. |
There are already some 47 million vehicles around the world fitted with gas combusting engines, mostly in heavy vehicles, but taxi fleets are fast moving to this cheaper, cleaner fuel source and private cars are sure to follow.
Bearing in mind that South Africa new vehicle sales tally up to less than one percent of global vehicle sales, this move may yet result in local car owners keeping their vehicles even longer, but running on gas, instead of fossil fuel.
Hence converting existing petrol or diesel burning engines to burn liquefied gas instead looks likely to become a big industry in SA.
Which is all good news for existing mechanics and youngsters who want to make a career out of fixing people’s rides, as well as the factories that build these rides. Their future is so bright, they have to wear shades, as Timbuk3 sings here. (The pin-ups are in homage to traditional mechanic wall decoration.)
