Search This Blog

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Why is a Ferrari like an Elio?

Paul Elio has big dreams for his small car,
dreams that would be that much more credible
if he can start building the trikes already!
Two car makers are selling bits of themselves in the U.S. and to this observer, both investments looks a lot like that dingy alleyway that takes you straight to the dry cleaners.

Fiat Chrysler, which owns 90% of Ferrari, started selling 10% of this stake on the New York Stock Exchange on today (21 Oct, 2015). Stock analysts on CNBC described the trade not as buying into a car builder, but into a luxury brand, like Gucci. 
Because we humans like being taken to the cleaners, demand quickly outstripped supply, keeping the price at the higher end of $48 - $52 range and giving Ferrari a comfortable $893 million market value in the eyes of  the investors punters -- way more than analysts' earlier evaluations.
Fiat Chrysler is currently keeping the Ferrari share hot by limiting supply to 10%, but it will eventually sell off the entire remaining 80% stake (with Piero Ferrari keeping the remaining 10%). The laws of supply and demand means this will lead to the classic IPO spike and slump pattern, which is why on Nasdaq's website, analyst Martin Tilier advises investors to wait for the slump, rather than pay top dollar now. Tilier's best advice, however, is to invest in Fiat Chrysler, now that it rid itself of Ferrari, along with el Toro's plans to make itself less exclusive by ramping up production. 

Meanwhile, from the dumps of Detroit...

Ferrari is not the only rarely spotted car to pimp itself on the market. 
Elio Motors has for the past two years been touring America to tout ownership of both its trikes and the company to all comers. 
As for the trikes, Elio Motor is offering four levels of "expressions of interest", starting at a $100 "I want in" level; and going up to a $1000 "I am all-in" stake. 
Individuals can also reserve interest for an equity stake in Elio Motors. On the website, the hard-sell reads thus: Imagine if someone had offered you a chance to buy shares in Tesla in 2010. Elio is that opportunity today and we are offering shares for a limited-time, don’t let this opportunity pass by you, express your interest in investing in Elio today!

A washee without a ticketee?

Elio's founder Paul Elio explained his mission to change the future of America's commute during a TEDex Detroit talk. 
His 2000-strong audience in the historic Fox theatre of Motown was especially receptive to Elio's promise that just the relative fuel savings from his 85-miles-per-gallon trike will enable drivers of Motown's old "clunkers" to save enough money to both make monthly payments on the his $6,800 tandem-seater and pay for the tiny petrol engine's fuel. 
Elio road shows take place every month, at which Elio Motors reminds of its plans to build its trikes in an old GM plant in Shreveport, Louisiana, giving jobs to 1,500 Americans; and that is has signed an agreement with auto-servicing franchiser Pep Boys to have future Elios repaired in cities across the U.S. 
To date, over 45,000 people, mostly Americans, have swallowed the bait "solidified their place in American automotive history" by reserving a stake in Elio -- although in their defence no payments have been, nor can yet be made, by these punters investors.

In classy SanFran, meanwhile...

Already practicing what Elio is preaching,
the Scoot quad in San Franciso.
Another city transport visionary, Michael Keating, and his team of tree-huggers this week answered riders' demand for small cars by rolling out the Renault Twingo  as a Nissan "quad". 
Ten of these two-seater electric cars will join the 400 electric scooters already parked in designate garages all over the Bay area as part of the Scoot ride rentals. 
Keating compares electric bikes to healthy salads, electric scooters to smoothies, and cars to steaks. On this scale Nissan's little electric car qualifies as biltong -- a spiced slice of wind-dried meat that is not quite as healthy for the city and its commuters as a salad-bike, but neither as much overkill as a steak-car.
The important point here is that Keating and his team are already "making the difference" which Paul Elio preaches while touting shares in his company, (with the reassurance that "no money or other considerations are being solicited at this time"). 
When you compare Keating's quiet and quick Scoot quad roll-out to Elio's ongoing marketing since 2013, it certainly seems Elio Motors doth protest too much. All of which is giving this South African observer uncomfortable flashbacks to the Joule electric car, which saw the South African taxpayer fund over ZAR300 million (about $22,9 million) to build exactly one (x1) running electric hatchback, and that using off-the-shelf tech. 
The Joule company closed down in 2012 despite (or because of) constantly announcing its plans with almost as more fanfare as does Elio Motors. Here's hoping all those nice Yanks are not being led down the Joule path...