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| Jackie Cilliers |
A
week is a long time in politics, and when Jonathan Ball Publishers late last
year approached Institute of Security Studies (ironically abbreviated to ISS) boss Jackie Cilliers to publish his scenarios for SA up to 2034, the
resulting book, “Fate of The Nation” always risked being overtaken by the
latest twist in the ANC’s infighting.
Cilliers
recently told Moneyweb his modelling factored in a split between the ANC’s
traditionalists and revisionists, but not a total implosion of the ANC, a fate
he is now considering a possibility for the ANC. An end to the ruling party
will send politics in South Africa into a completely different trajectory, but
it will not change the long-term repair job that
awaits whatever party is
elected in 2019. |
| Jacob Zuma. |
Cilliers
used the International Futures forecasting tool at Denver University’s to
develop three scenarios for SA, calling them Madiba Magic, Bafana Bafana and A
Nation Divided.
The
first scenario, A Nation Divided, is where the ANC splits early next year after
the traditionalist faction within the ANC, led by Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma,
has a big triumph in December of 2017. The ANC splits between traditionalist
and what Zuma called “clever blacks”, and its support falls below 50%.
In
the Bafana Bafana scenario, the ANC restores unity among its members, likely
with Cyril Ramaphosa as president, and manages to get about 53% in 2019,
keeping its majority, but it loses the rest of Gauteng to the DA.
Mandela
Magic sees the reformist faction drag the ANC out of its populist,
traditionalist approach into the 21st Century. In this is a scenario the
ANC remains in power until the 2029 elections and possibly beyond.
All
three scenarios show it will take SA’s next government a long time to get back
to economic growth and job creation after the damage wrought by the unqualified
cadres deployed to enable looting of the state’s coffers under president Jacob
Zuma.
In
the final chapter Cilliers sets out how radical economic transformation could
happen. Only two political options present themselves – an end to the
tripartite alliance, which would free up a reformist ANC to pursue employment
intensive growth, or the transformation of Cosatu into a union federation that
mobilises and champions poor people, stepping away from its current focus on
middle-class government employees as the bulwark of its membership.
Cilliers
warns South Africa is already the most unequal country globally and this
inequality will rise unless government intervenes, as the “trickle-down”
economy fails to filter down wealth and only makes more people poor. He warns
much needs to change to get a Madiba Magic future, and that government must
partner with business with effective buy local strategies if we are to avoid
muddling along like Bafana Bafana while facing the real threat of a blowout,
such as in a Nation Divided.
