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Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Transport trends in 2018

BEAM ME UP SCOTTIE: Wheels predict self-flying drone
taxis like this Volocopter over Dubai will spread to cities
before the end of the decade, because self-flying drones
are as close as humans are likely to get to teleportation.
ALWYN VILJOEN predicts which innovations at the annual Consumer Electronics Show will impact our commute and delivery habits
OVER the last 50 years, the world’s largest electronics trade show — the Consumer Electronics Show or CES, in Las Vegas, has each year devoted many stands to new transport trends that all promised to disrupt the industry.
This year, that promise seems ready to finally come true, thanks to electric and hydrogen vehicles that range from one-wheelers to trucks.
Witness Wheels collected the innovations we deem will have the most impact on transport as we know it.

ROBOT VANS AND MINI-BUSES

South Africa’s infamous taxi drivers better take heed — several self-driving little robot-buses have been tested around the world since 2015 and the segment looks ready to come of age this year. Even the most conservative of companies, Toyota, have entered the fray with its ePallet.
The robot vans and minibuses are designed to trundle the same route every day, stopping for passengers or to deliver a 20-foot container to a depot.
The technology driving and steering these delivery boxes on wheels have now been tested for almost a decade on giant robot trucks in mines in Australia and Chile.
One controller, who may be sitting thousands of kilometres away, can monitor and control several of these self-driving container delivery platforms, as Einride is proving in Sweden.
Because a robot van or bus is basically bread-bin on top of a flat battery pack with wheels powered by hub motors, the interiors can be fitted with seats or shelves, as did U.S.-based RoboMart with their grocery deliver cart.
Remember those many wheelbarrow sellers of fresh produce that helped make the initial money of many a now very wealthy KZN families?
Robomart’s little truck adds an electric golf cart to the wheelbarrow and air-cooled shelves to deliver veggies to the housewife, who will summon the fresh produce using an app.
Robomart said it is seeking an Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit from California’s Department of Motor Vehicles to test the first prototype this year. The company’s next step will be to build fully functional versions of the Robomart and begin commercial pilot programmes in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Toyota's vision for the futre, from pizza delivery bots to robot mini-buses.

ROBO BAKKIES AND TRUCKS

Cities around the world are phasing in a ban on diesel engines, but diesel trucks will still be required to carry heavy loads between the cities for decades to come.
For there is no battery technology even on the horizon that can cover distance as cheaply as fossil-fuelled engines do, which is all good news for mechanics who are worrying about their jobs.
These mechanics will do well, however, to start learning about battery tech.
For to meet the demands of the diesel ban, several companies, from established names like Cummins to newcomers like U.S.-based Workhorse, Nikola and Tesla, are preparing a range of all-electric or hydrogen trucks and bakkies.
The Bison from Canada’s Havelaar is the latest all-electric bakkie. Never mind the roomy cabin and impressive payload.
All you need to know is this beast does 0-100 in six seconds, thanks to a 40 kW/h battery pack that drives a motor making 220 kW and 510 Nm torque.
Driven normally without a load, Havelaar claims a range of some 200 km.
Havelaar plans to build the first 100 production models for fleet operators and municipalities by 2020.
A consumer version is expected to follow in 2021 and the base model Bison will sell for around $45 000 (about R560 000). With backing by a consortium of Dutch, Chinese and Canadian partners, Witness Wheels predict they will achieve this aim, unlike Tesla Motors, which consistently fails to meets its own production targets.
The 5kW Avionics has to be detuned to be legal in Europe.

BIKES

In South Africa at the moment, two-wheeled transport is strictly for those too poor to get four wheels or those rich enough to spend serious money on fast machines.
Electric bicycles have the potential to change all this, as it offers Africa’s creative mechanics lots of scope to weld fantastic creations using off-the-shelf parts.
And don’t think electric bikes are all off the sedate sit-up-and-beg, pedal-assist variety either.
Brushless motors in the hub delivers all the torque from start, which means even a small motor have a pull-off that feels blistering fast. The speed is as high as the magnets are powerful and with enough kilo-Watt hours in the battery, these bikes goes for over 100 km on a charge, without pedal assist.
In Europe and the U.S., many bike builders are already designing true beauts, but our current fave is Poland’s retro fusion of leather, wood and metal into the streamlined Avionics V1.
Its motor makes five kiloWatts — which sounds puny compared to the 15 kW from a typical 250 cc motorbike, but bear in mind e-bikes are limited to just 0,7 kW tops in Europe.
Those 5 000 Watts in the Avionics are good for a steady 58 km/h, which is plenty fast on a cruiser bicycle, and a large 24-Ah lithium-ion battery give a, range of 120 km. The V1 is currently on the Indiegogo crowd-funding site for an eye-watering $6 550, but this is still $2 930 less than the planned $9 480 (almost R118 000) when it launches officially later this year.
For those on a budget, riding a scooter is cheaper than taking a Siyaya taxi, but because of our taxi drivers’ reputation, many attempts to launch cheap motorbikes and scooters for SA’s commuters have failed. Hence Sri Lanka’s Gogoro interconnected all-electric scooters, which system now sets the bar for quick and cheap city mobility, will not be feasible until the Centennials (who are in high school today) discover the quick mobility of a small scooter.
If they instead discover the compensating joys of a big cruiser, we predict an electric cruiser like the Tacita T-Cruise from Italy will be very popular.
The T-Cruise was first unveiled at the AIMExpo show in Columbus, Ohio in September last year and makes 30 kW and 70 Nm from zero revs — numbers which will make even KTM snobs drool.
A belt or chain drives the rear wheel through Tacita’s proprietary five-speed gear box and three different 120 Volt lithium-polymer battery packs, starting with the 7,5 kW/h base kit for 81 km and topping out with a 27 kW/h battery good for 270 km.

SELF-BALANCERS

Apart from a few Segways carrying security officers in shopping malls, the slew of self-balancing vehicles have never caught on in South Africa.
This is mainly because we cannot afford to buy these pricey “last-mile” vehicles that are designed to shorten the route between the bus stop or station and home. The OneWheel XR may change this, as a team of XR riders rode a three-day, 480-km ride from Palm Springs to Las Vegas to show that XR is built for big adventures.
The XR is up for pre-order from March for R22 500 (excluding delivery). It is still a lot for a one-wheel skateboard, but it shows in which direction younger commuters are, ahem, leaning.

TAKING TO SKIES

Drones that carry people is an obvious next step in transport, with the U.S. Army testing a flying ambulance, Workhorse selling a drone alongside its all-electric bakkie and Dubai already testing a self-flying two-seater, 18-rotor drone from Germany’s Volocopter.
Their longest (official) flight to date is 27 minutes at a speed of 50 km/h and a height of 25 metres. The maximum speed of small copter is 100 km/h and it can carry 160 kg.
Now Volocopter has revealed at CES that Intel CEO Brian Krzanich rode aboard the aircraft as its very first passenger in Germany last month. “That was the best flight I have ever had. Everybody will fly one of these someday,” he said. Wheels predicts this will start happening before 2020.